Modern Masters 2017: All your questions answered

I’ve been meaning to write an article on Modern Masters 2017 shortly after it was released but my mind was just too convoluted with many other things that I couldn’t sit still to put my thoughts down. But now that I’ve settled down, I’m here to answer some of those tough questions on MM17 and to share with you what I knew and where I think MM17 is going be positioned from a finance standpoint of view. Now if you plan to buy a box to draft with friends or sign up for some drafts at your Local Games Store (LGS), this article doesn’t really apply to you.


Question 1: What’s was your overall take on MM17? Did you believe Wizards cramped so much goodies into one set?

I’m going to be very honest.
- We all roughly knew MM17 would contain Liliana of the Veil and Snapcaster Mage.
- I knew Damnation, Voice of Resurgence and Cavern of Souls were going to be reprinted.
- I knew they would improve the uncommon slot (as compared to MM15)
- I somewhat knew that MM17 would contain Zendikar fetchlands weeks leading up to the spoiler.
- I was 60% sure that Tarmogoyf would get another printing. The other 40% wanted me to believe it wasn’t true but I couldn’t think of any significant mythic aside from Craterhoof Behemoth.
- I knew, aside the Zendikar fetchlands, none of the Expeditions & Inventions would be reprinted in MM17. Hence, cards like Chalice of the Void and Horizon Canopy, which people originally speculated, were automatic exclusions.

So based on the above, I knew MM17 was going to be a hit. At the same time I knew the print runs would be massive and while it’s a stacked-up set, the quantities will level off the prices and still see a significant slashes to the original prints of the cards.

Question 2: Now that we’re few weeks into release, I still some secondary sellers selling boxes at RM750 to RM780 a box. LGS are holding steady at RM800 a box. Is this still a good entry point?

This question has multiple answers and it all depends with what you want to do with the box. I’ll address that in the subsequent question, but given that MSRP is US$240 a box and EBAY prices are hovering around US$220 you would think of natural conversion and still see value at obtaining a box say at RM780. My opinion is the RM700 pre-order was great. RM750 is okay, RM780 is slightly above what I would pay, but at RM800 unless you feeling lucky that day, is kind of steep.


Question 3: I have a chance to pick up a box at RM750, do I go in now?

Again, depends what you are after.

(a) If you plan to open to get singles for your playsets and maybe get lucky on a chase foil – GO AHEAD! The EV (Expected Value) on the box is very good and its very seldom you lose out. You probably may not get everything you want out of a single box, but if you’re just entering modern, buying a booster box of MM17 @ RM750 is a thumbs up!

(b) If you plan to open and sell the singles and make a couple of bucks – well that’s okay too. Based on the latest pricing, I still see reliasable EV at SCG x 3 still decent enough to recover a box value. But my caveat would be you would need to open at least either a Liliana or Tarmogoyf or a mix of fetchlands/ Damnation/ Cavern of Souls. Of course you would still need to spend time to find a buyer, COD etc. Not my cup of tea, but strictly answering that question, Yes its still OK to open @ RM750 and sell loose singles.

(c) If you plan to buy a box and hold long term and hope it appreciates in value – that’s a very grey area. Firstly we’re talking about a single box. So even if box prices go up in 3 years and you somehow get a buyer for RM900, it’s a 16% return in 3 years (averaging 5% return per year). Not bad but I reckon you can do a lot better with options (a) or (b). For (a), you get to play the cards and enjoy the cards for what they are. You can’t really put a price tag on that. While (b) making those small margins and rolling into your next box and going again. Eventually your returns will creep quickly past that RM150 return (unless your box ends up a dud).

Question 4: Did any of the reprints blind-side you?


Yes! I got burnt on 3 cards – Death’s Shadow, Inquisition of Kozilek and Basilisk Collar. Since December I have been stockpiling a number of these cards (along with many others) as I strongly believed that they would dodge the reprint and spike in prices post spoiler announcement. I got these 3 wrong and got severely punished. Lessons to learn here – Wizards can reprint ANYTHING! Don’t take anything for granted these days (I’m looking at you Mishra’s Bauble).

Question 5: Since you know a lot of things of MM17, did you buy like 100 boxes (25 cases) or more?

I could have. I probably should have. But glad I didn’t. While I’m a fan of making money, I also value the continuous growth in the Magic community in Malaysia. In the past, Modern had so many barriers to entry and MM17 was a way to shatter the ice wall which allowed many to come in. Me hoarding onto a large chunk of boxes meant for the players didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I love Modern and I want to have more players in Malaysia playing modern. There’s tonnes of boxes out there for everyone and from the trade forums, I see a steady stream of Modern singles in the secondary market and that’s healthy.

Question 6: Will we see another crazy set like MM17 in EMA18 or MM19 in the future?

Give them an inch and they now want a foot. These are typical human traits. Yes Wizards have a tough expectation gap to fill for upcoming Masters sets but I strongly believe we won’t have another Masters set like this. You will notice that aside Liliana, Tarmogoyf, Snapcaster Mage and Cavern of Souls, they toned down on the mythics and spread the wealth down to the rares. I believe future sets would revert back to original form of printing where mythics are the true chase cards in the set. Actually if you look at MM15, people condemned the set for ages but its not all that bad. Sure it lacks premium uncommons but you will note cards like Eldrazi Temple, Surgical Extraction and Leyline of Sanctity are all recently picking up in prices. So when you compare pound for pound vs MM17, we kind of feel biased towards MM17 by simply being blinded by the Zendikar fetchlands and JUST the fetchlands only.

Question 7: Is there a card/cards that you personally think has some hidden value in this set?

Personally I don’t, but if I were to target something unique from MM17, I would buy and keep a few FOIL versions of Snapcaster Mages and Cavern of Souls. The new artwork in foil may have some niche demand down the road.


Question 8: I have playsets of the original Zendikar lands as well as MM17 fetchlands. Which versions do I keep?

From a nostalgia point of view – Old Zendikar versions.
From an investment point of view – MM17.

Why? Firstly, the condition. Chances are the MM17 versions are pack fresh so if you didn’t play with them at all, they are going to be minty mint to time you plan to sell. The Zendikar versions could have changed a couple of hands, decks, sleeves along the way so while it may look good on the surface, you can’t beat pack fresh.

Secondly, it’s the hologram sticker. Counterfeits is a real thing now and they are getting better and better. They are attacking Reserved List cards and non-Reserved List cards alike and its getting more difficult to tell apart what's real and what's not. The holograms are not full proof but presently, it’s a strong statement to say your card is the real deal. And this applies not only to the fetchlands but for all the other significant reprints as well. You probably didn't notice that Modern Masters 2013 print doesn't have the hologram sticker and hence it will be a matter of time before MM15 and MM17 versions of Tarmogoyfs will catch up with its 2013 counterpart solely on the demand for the hologram versions.

That’s it from me this week. I plan to write a piece of state of LGS in Malaysia soon. It may be somewhat controversial but lets see how it goes…

-pm out-