Scalding Tarn started around the RM1,000 price range and it did speed up to almost RM1,500 at one point. It was the ultimate chase-rare and it literally felt like you won a lottery. You felt exclusive to be a club of Expedition owners. Your binder looked awesome, whether or not they were for trade. Aside from the Revised Dual Lands, there were the most sought after commodity during that 3 month period.
Oath of Gatewatch brought another series of Expeditions, though slightly underwhelming compared to the first wave of Fetchlands and Shocklands. And for a moment, we thought that was it. It was a time of consolidation and the prices of Expeditions started to level out as collectors and players scavenge through trade binders to pick up the missing pieces for the collection.
Much like the Jurassic Park saga, the Masterpieces hit us again in Kaladesh. And again in Aether Revolt. And while we thought we were going to get a breather, Masterpieces were going to be in EVERY set from here on. That’s when reality set in. The original Jurassic Park was great. The Lost World was okay. Then you gave us more dinosaurs. And more and more. Until we, or at least myself, feel that they should have stopped after the first or second. It was TOO MUCH.
And the prices showed. Everything plummeted. Even the Kaladesh Inventions. Newer Inventions have yet to show sharp declines on the basis that collecters/buyers were more cautious. They knew the roller coaster could only come down.
So that was a great background story. What do I think about it?
1. What are really the Masterpieces?
Masterpieces are collectors item. Period. Wizards design cards to be part game part collectible. The Masterpieces and their sweet art plus foils make them great collectables. They are extremely pretty to look at as you flip the pages of your binder. They make great pimps over the original prints of your cards. I personally don’t pimp my decks. Even I find it difficult shuffling up regular foil cards in my deck. But everyone has their poison so I’ll rest my case on this for now.
2. Do they have good future Expected Value ie sound investments?
How do I say this gently? No. Non. Nee. Nein. That’s no in four languages.
3. But they look so pretty…. Why no?
Consider the few factors of what makes a good card investment.
- Playability
- Demand vs Supply
- Availability of substitutes
Rule #1 – Playability. I don’t consider buying into Sculpting Steel Masterpiece investing. But let’s assume you invest in a playable Masterpiece, not the random junk like Sculpting Steel or Tectonic Edge. You come in a good price point, say SCG x3 and cross your fingers that its going up and up in 12 months before you flip.
Let’s get another thing out the way first. Foil versions of a card will almost 95% of the time is valued higher than its regular counterpart. Hence the foil version creates an artificial ceiling for all cards. Naturally when a price of the regular card increases, the price of the foil version would increase. However, it’s NEVER in tandem. So while price of Masterpiece versions may follow closely to its regular foil counterpart, its price movements are never in tandem with price spikes of its regular counterpart. So we all know Masterpieces does have a premium over the regular cards, but it not necessary commands a premium over the regular foil version.
My favourite example would be Chalice of the Void. Consider the chart movements in the past 3 months between the regular, regular foil and Invention. Chalice experienced a sudden spike due to the emergence of the Modern Cheerios deck. While the Cheerios didn’t exactly beat up everyone in the room, but Chalice now remains a staple in the format, something it wasn’t a year ago. Still a 40%-50% price increase in the regular version did not translate into any significant movement for the Masterpiece foil. And sadly, I expect this pattern to continue on. Again I reiterate the price of regular versions will never exceed the foil versions, be it regular foil or Masterpiece. It’s just you won’t see the huge spikes in Masterpiece foils as how you would see it for regular versions.
4. If I’m a stubborn guy and I still insist on buying into Masterpieces for future value, how would I go about it?
Coming in at the lowest price point as possible. Yea I know that’s a very “duh” statement. It’s kind of hard to bargain for anything less than SCG x 3 for a Masterpiece (though sometimes you can get an occasional piece at SCG 2.8 or 2.9). My advise would be to scout online webstore promotions like Hareruya for discounts. Prices for most cards on Hareruya are generally expensive however they try to maintain a certain level of Masterpieces and regularly runs promotion for excess quantities. Hence keeping tabs on their website is a good way to snipe some great deals while at the same time singles shipping cost is now only Yen560 (previously Yen2,000).
5. Investing wise - Masterpiece Verdant Catacombs (SCG $150) or 2 x MM17 Foil Verdant Catacombs (SCG$70 x 2)?
a. Prices for MM17 versions will never overtake Masterpiece versions.
b. When there is increased demand for Verdant Catacombs, you would see growth for both versions. Example linear $10 increase for either versions coming back to the point earlier that increases never in tandem percentage wise. Hence, your investment is potentially +$10 (+6.25%) for Masterpiece versus +$20 (+12.5%) for MM17 Foils. While Masterpieces growth are relatively slow, its price dips falls harder than regular foils. Another important point to consider before you dive in.
c. Consider liquidity and how many people looking to add a Masterpiece Verdant to their deck and needing to find another matching three copies. Its tough and very expensive to the wallet so most people may just settle for the MM17 versions. This ties in to my earlier comment on Demand vs Supply and the availability of substitutes.
6. Who cares about investing? I’m in it for the sweet art!
By all means. Word of caution is the more emotional attachment you put on a specific card (example for the love of its sweet art), it creates an additional invisible value that’s put on the card when you try and sell them in the future. This actually creates a mental barrier to yourself as the “sentimental value” would kick in.
End of the day, Magic to me are cardboards which I categories to two distinct buckets – Tools and Commodities. I personally don’t allow “sentimental value” to affect any of my decisions with regards to these buckets. While Masterpieces look all flashy and great, for me it comes down to whether it falls into either of my buckets. Right now, they are just not the thing for me. Perhaps some readers (and Masterpiece owners) may feel insulted by my write-up, but the opinions are my own and I’ve been around MTG for 20 years so I do know a bit more than some of you.
But I have to admit, a collection like below looks pretty awesome (Disclaimer: This doesn't belong to me):
Have a good week ahead!
-pm out-
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